THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY.
Voluntary -
Public
Date:
8/5/2019
GAIN Report Number:
IN 9072
India
Post:
Monsoon Update July 2019
Report Categories:
Agriculture in the Economy
Agriculture in the News
Climate Change/Global Warming/Food Security
Policy and Program Announcements
Cotton and Products
Grain and Feed
Oilseeds and Products
Approved By:
Lazaro Sandoval
Prepared By:
Dhruv Sood
Report Highlights:
On August 1, 2019, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) published its long-range forecast for
the second half of the southwest monsoon (August to September), predicting normal rainfall for 2019.
The rainfall level is expected to be consistent with the long period average (LPA). Overall planting for
Kharif 2019 season is 6 percent slower than the same period last year due to delayed rains during the
first half of the monsoon. The monsoon later intensified during the last week of July leading to an
increase in the pace of sowings in Central and Southern India and reducing the overall rainfall deficit.
General Overview
According to IMD reports, the southwest monsoon set over the state of Kerala on June 8, 2019 later
than its normal date of June 1, 2019. The advance of the southwest monsoon over south, central and
east India was delayed by about 10 to 15 days against their normal dates due to the formation of Cyclone
‘Vayu’ over the Arabian Sea. But the southwest monsoon advanced and covered the entire country on
July 19, 2018. However, the overall monsoon rains in India are 9 percent lower than the long period
average (LPA). During the last week of July (July 25 to 31), 70 percent of all states and union territories
received normal to excess rains which lowered the overall rain deficit. The central Indian states of
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, and southern state of Telangana received significant
excess rains during the last week of July. In total, around 55 percent of the total 677 districts across
India have received normal to excess rains during the monsoon season.
IMD Long Range Forecast for Second Half of Southwest Monsoon
On August 1, 2019. the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) published its long-range forecast for
the second half of the southwest monsoon (August to September) predicting normal rainfall for 2019.
The rainfall from August to September is expected to match the long period average (LPA). The LPA of
rainfall for India for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1961-
2010 period is 42.83 cm (49 percent of the average season rainfall). For more details refer - Press
Release - Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during Second Half (August –September)
Weather Outlook for Next Two Weeks
During the first week of August, widespread to isolated heavy rainfall is likely over East (Assam,
Meghalaya, West Bengal Sikkim), Central (Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa) and Northwest
India (Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand) and along the west coast. Scattered to
widespread rainfall is likely over the rest of the country except for southeast peninsular India, where
rainfall is likely to be isolated. For more details, refer IMD outlook for next two weeks (Aug 1-14).
Sowing Progress
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s (MOAFW) July 26, 2019 report, the
overall planting for Kharif 2019 season is 7 percent lower (in area) than the five-year average due to
delayed rains during the first half of monsoon. Planting for all major crops is lower compared to last
year except for cotton. Maharashtra and Rajasthan have seen significant increases in the cotton area.
Producers have shifted from soybean and pulses (Maharashtra), and coarse cereals (Rajasthan) due to
delayed rains and higher cotton prices.
Table 1. India: Kharif 2019 Sown Area (in million hectares)
Crop
Area Sown in
2019 on July 26,
2019
Area Sown in
2018 on July 26,
2018
Normal Area
on July 26**
Y-o-Y
Change
Change
from
Normal
Rice
18.514
19.769
21.571
-6%
-14%
Pulses
8.292
10.184
9.216
-19%
-10%
Coarse
Cereals
11.900
13.058
13.518
-9%
-12%
Oilseeds
13.366
14.092
14.224
-5%
-6%
Sugarcane
5.230
5.545
4.774
-6%
10%
Jute and
Mesta
0.682
0.718
0.737
-5%
-7%
Cotton
10.895
10.252
10.259
6%
6%
Total
68.879
73.618
74.299
-6%
-7%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India
** Normal Area is the five-year average of the area from 2014-2018
Table 2. India: Southwest Monsoon Regional Rainfall Distribution
June 1-August 1, 2019
Regions
2019 Actual
(mm)
Normal
(mm)*
2019 Percentage Departure from
Normal
Northwest India
270.3
295.0
-8%
Central India
482.8
502.8
-4%
Southern Peninsula
309.9
383.8
-19%
East and Northeast
India
705.2
790.1
-11%
All India
418.9
461.3
-9%
* Normal rainfall is the fifty-year average of rainfall from 1951-2000
Source: Indian Meteorological Department
Table 3. India: Storage Status at 91 Major Reservoirs in Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)
Region
Volume on
July 25,
2019 (in
BCM)
Total
Capacity
(in BCM)
Percentage of
Capacity on
July 25, 2019
Percentage of
Capacity on
July 25, 2018
10-Year
Average
Capacity
Level on
July 25
Northern Region
8.56
18.01
48%
25%
40%
Eastern Region
3.11
18.83
17%
37%
30%
Western Region
6.26
32.31
19%
32%
32%
Central Region
10.55
42.30
25%
33%
36%
Southern Region
12.37
51.59
24%
56%
37%
All India
40.85
163.04
25%
40%
35%
Source: Ministry of Water Resources
Image 1: India: Monthly Rainfall Statistics in mm (southwest monsoon 2019)
* Normal rainfall is the fifty-year average of rainfall from 1951-2000
Source: Indian Meteorological Department