2022 NON-DEBT AND NON-BANK FINANCING 447
for most of history, the price of homes kept pace with the rate of inflation.
However, from 1995–2006, house prices diverged from other economic
trends and increased dramatically, by eighty percent.
49
But, this rise was
unsustainable — the leverage by borrowers with questionable credit holding
subprime loans could not form the pillars for long-term stability.
50
Because
many of the loans were 100% loans, as most of the early payments are
allocated to interest, it would take many years into the loan before the
homeowner would see any equity. When faced with the disruptions in the
market, absent equity, there would be no safe exit by these borrowers.
51
The prevailing lending practices also drove housing supply, with record
or near-record levels of homes on the market.
52
High supplies, exacerbated
by high foreclosure rates, would necessarily force down housing prices,
49. In 2001, home prices were at their highest ever and in 2006, home prices were
double what they were ten years earlier. See Becky Sullivan & Ari Shapiro, 10 Years
After Housing Crises: A Realtor, A Renter, Starting Over, Staying Put, NPR (Apr. 28,
2018, 7:03 AM), https://www.npr.org/2018/04/28/603678259/10-years-after-housing-
crisis-a-realtor-a-renter-starting-over-staying-put; see also All-Transactions House Price
Index for United States, F
ED. RSRV. BANK OF ST. LOUIS, https://fred.stlouisfed.
org/series/USSTHPI (last visited Nov. 19, 2021).
50. The “subprime market” is so defined because the median FICO is substantially
below that for prime loans (620 as compared to 723) and the loans carry high loan-to-
value ratios. To control for the high risk of default given these characteristics, subprime
loans typically have adjustable interest rates, often with a balloon payment of principal
and negative amortization, under which the principal of the loan is not reduced on a
schedule, but rather increases over the term. Under the 2/28 loans, the initial rate is
typically very low and fixed for two years; thereafter, the rate adjusts periodically, in
accordance with some index agreed to in the mortgage for the rest of the term.
Depending on what is happening in the economy, the first adjustment could be a shocker
if the borrower’s financial means did not experience the same increases. Cf. Berghaus
v. U.S. Bank, 360 S.W.3d 779, 784 (Ky. Ct. App. 2012) (rejecting claim of predatory
lending and violations of federal disclosure requirements on account of lender’s failure
to disclose “potential for an enormous rate increase”). The related “Alt-A” market was
also suffering. The Alt-A market consists of borrowers who are typically self-employed
and consequently have unpredictable income streams. Even so, as their credit scores are
a bit stronger, lenders made loans with little documentation and often with a high debt-
to-income ratio. See S
UMIT AGARWAL & CALVIN T. HO, COMPARING THE PRIME AND
SUBPRIME MORTGAGE MARKETS 1–2 (2007), https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/
historical/frbchi/fedletter/frbchi_fedletter_2007_241.pdf. If lenders hoped for different
results in the case of the Alt-A borrower, they were sorely mistaken.
51. See LEXISNEXIS, SUBPRIME LENDING: AN UPDATE OF THE ISSUES AND
APPROACHES 23 (2007); see also Steven L. Schwarcz, Systemic Risk and the Financial
Crisis: Protecting the Financial System as a ‘System’ 16 (Feb. 12, 2014) (unpublished
manuscript) (on file with the University of California Berkeley School of Law),
https://www.law.berkeley.edu/files/bclbe/Schwarcz_Paper.pdf.
52. See Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States (“MSACSR”), FED. RSRV.
BANK OF ST. LOUIS, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR (last visited Nov. 19,
2021) (tracking housing supply by month).