Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst (Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)
Tanisha Ladha
– Research Analyst (Tanisha.l[email protected])
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
19 March 2024
ECOSCOPE
The Economy Observer
HHNFS likely unchanged at ~5% of GDP in 9MFY24
Household debt may have risen to a new high of 40% of GDP in 3QFY24
According to the first revised estimate (FRE) published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) last month, household net
financial savings (HHNFS) stood at a 47-year low of 5.3% of GDP in FY23, down from 7.3% of GDP in FY22 and an average
of 7.6% of GDP between FY12 and FY20 (Exhibit 1). This marks a slight upward revision from the earlier estimate of 5.1%
of GDP in FY23, published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in Sep’23.
HHNFS is a function of household gross financial savings (HHGFS) and their financial liabilities (FL). Notably, HHGFS was
largely stable at 11% of GDP in FY23 vs. FY22 (Exhibit 2), which means that lower HHNFS was a clear result of a sharp
jump in household borrowings last year. GFS has six major components – deposits, currency, insurance, pension &
provident funds (P&PFs), capital market investments (shares & debentures, S&D), and small savings. Deposits are, by far,
the largest components of household GFS. The rise in deposits (as % of GDP) in FY23 vis-à-vis FY22, was offset by lower
currency holdings and small savings (Exhibit 3).
HH annual borrowings surged to 5.8% of GDP in FY23 (Exhibit 4), the second-highest in the post-independence period (it
was 6.7% of GDP in FY07), and compared to an average of 4% of GDP in the past few years.
HHNFS is the source of funds available to the government and/or the corporate sector to finance their deficit. The gap
between national investments and gross domestic savings (GDS) is funded by foreign savings (also called current account
deficit, CAD). The fall in HHNFS was so dramatic last year, that it entirely offset the sum of higher household physical
savings, and lower dis-savings by the government. There are, thus, two important things to note: 1) Notwithstanding a
decade-high household physical savings, HH total savings were at a six-year lowest level of 18.4% of GDP in FY23 (Exhibit
5); 2) India’s GDS eased to 30.2% of GDP in FY23, lower than 31.2% of GDP in FY22 and 31-32% of GDP between FY14 and
FY19 (Exhibit 6).
Were the falling HHNFS and lower HH savings in FY23 an exception? We do not think so. Our estimates suggest that
HHNFS was broadly unchanged at ~5% of GDP in 9MFY24, and it is very likely that it could be between 5% and 5.5% of
GDP in FY24 (Exhibit 7). Although HHGFS increased slightly to 10.8% of GDP in 9MFY24 (vs. 10.5% of GDP in 9MFY23),
financial liabilities also rose to 5.8% of GDP vs. 5.5% of GDP (Exhibit 8).
Our detailed estimates of HHGFS suggest that higher deposits and small savings were offset by a sharp fall in currency
holdings (Exhibit 9). Further, the share of capital market investments (called shares & debentures, S&D) has quadrupled
to an average of 0.8% of GDP in the past seven years (FY17-FY23) from just 0.2% of GDP in the years prior to
demonetization and it likely stayed at ~0.7% of GDP in 9MFY24 as well.
As discussed in our recent strategy note, weak income growth, coupled with robust consumption and investment growth
(i.e., physical savings) can occur only if HHNFS declines significantly. This is exactly what had transpired in FY23. With
income growth remaining weak (in line with single-digit nominal GDP growth) and HHNFS likely at its lowest (at ~5% of
GDP), it is not surprising that both private consumption and household investment growth has weakened considerably in
FY24E (Exhibit 10).
What about the next year – FY25? Unlike FY24, investments are unlikely to be the primary driver of real GDP growth,
since both government investments are likely to grow at a much slower pace. Corporate investments may pick up (as is
the hope after general elections), however, with a revival in the investment deflator (in line with the wholesale price
index, WPI), real investments are likely to grow much slowly in FY25 vs. FY24. In contrast, assuming unchanged HHNFS
(FY25-S2), better income growth could push private spending (consumption + investments) growth higher next year. The
real GDP growth, however, is likely to be much weaker.
Finally, household debt was revised up to 38% of GDP in FY23 (and down to 36.7% of GDP in FY22), only second to 39.1%
of GDP in FY21. Our estimates suggest that it has risen to ~40% of GDP as of Dec’23 (3QFY24), reaching a new high
(Exhibit 11). Based on banks’ data, it is clear that unsecured personal loans (PL) continue to grow at the fastest pace
within household debt, followed by secured debt, agricultural loans, and business loans (Exhibit 12).
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9 March 2024
2
Exhibit 1: HHNFS at a 47-year low of 5.3% of GDP in FY23
Exhibit 2: HHGFS was stable at 11% of GDP last year…
Exhibit 3: …as higher deposits were offset by lower currency
and small savings
Exhibit 4: Annual borrowings were at the second-highest
level in the post-independence period
Exhibit 5: HH total savings were at a six-year low in FY23…
Exhibit 6: …and GDS also fell last year
Exhibit 7: HHNFS likely stable at ~5% of GDP in 9MFY24…
Exhibit 8: …as higher liabilities offset higher HHGFS
Source: RBI, CSO, MOFSL
5.3
FY73 FY78 FY83 FY88 FY93 FY98 FY03 FY08 FY13 FY18 FY23
HHNFS (% of GDP)
11.0
FY91 FY95 FY99 FY03 FY07 FY11 FY15 FY19 FY23
HHGFS (% of GDP)
2.8
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.1
0.9
3.0
4.3
4.4
6.3
3.5
4.1
2.0
2.1
1.7
2.9
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.7
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Currency Deposits Insurance P&PFs S&D Small savings
6.7
5.8
FY73 FY78 FY83 FY88 FY93 FY98 FY03 FY08 FY13 FY18 FY23
HH financial liabilities (% of GDP)
5.3
13.2
18.4
FY05 FY07 FY09 FY11 FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19 FY21 FY23
NFS Physical savings HH total savings
(% of GDP)
14.3
14.0
14.0
12.8
13.2
13.1
14.1
14.1
18.0
18.1
19.3
20.3
19.1
22.7
20.1
18.4
-1.2 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -2.8 -6.7 -3.0 -2.3
31.1
31.3
32.1
31.7
29.6
29.1
31.2
30.2
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)
Corporate Household GG Total savings
8.1
11.8
7.2
5.2
5.0
7.7
11.7
7.3
5.3
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24
Comparison of HHNFS (% of GDP)
MOFSL estimates CSO estimate
7.2
10.9
5.6
5.0
5.0
3.3
3.5
3.4
5.5
5.8
10.5
14.5
9.0
10.5
10.8
9MFY20 9MFY21 9MFY22 9MFY23 9MFY24
HHNFS Fin liabilities HHGFS
(% of
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3
Exhibit 9: Our estimates of HH financial savings on a quarterly basis
Annual data~
First nine-month data#
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
9MFY20
9MFY21
9MFY22
9MFY23
9MFY24
12.0
11.6
15.4
11.1
11.0
10.5
14.5
9.0
10.5
10.8
4.3
4.4
6.3
3.5
4.1
3.3
4.9
1.8
3.8
4.5
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.1
0.9
2.1
3.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
1.7
2.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.3
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
0.8
2.2
0.7
0.4
(0.7)
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.7
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.5
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.8
5.8
3.3
3.5
3.4
5.5
5.8
3.1
2.4
3.2
3.3
4.4
2.9
3.1
2.7
4.5
4.9
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
(0.1)
0.5
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.0
7.9
7.7
11.7
7.3
5.3
7.2
10.9
5.6
5.0
5.0
~CSO’s data up to FY22 (RBI for FY23) @ Including net flows into MFs and capital raised
#Based on RBI’s quarterly data (up to FY23), which may be different from CSO’s data
^ Assumptions for 9MFY24
*For comparison sake, HDFC Ltd. is included in HFCs in 2Q/3QFY24 Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 10: Possible scenario for household financial position in FY24E/FY25F
FY25-S1 assuming lower HHNFS, FY25-S2 assuming unchanged HHNFS and FY25-S3 assuming higher HHNFS
FY24E is MOFSL estimate based on 9MFY24 data Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 11: Household debt likely at a new peak of 40% of
GDP in 3QFY24…
Exhibit 12: …as unsecured personal loans (PL) continue to
grow at the fastest pace
*include housing, vehicles, education and loans against gold
Source: RBI, CSO, MOFSL
18.6
14.2
8.4
9.5 9.5 9.5
39.2
17.1
8.6
14.9
12.6
11.3
-26.5
-17.3
10.4
4.5
10.2
13.4
7.3
5.3
5.3
5.0
5.3
5.5
FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25-S1 FY25-S2 FY25-S3
PFCE growth (% YoY) Physical savings (% YoY) NFS (% YoY) NFS (% of GDP)
39.1
38.6
37.0
36.4
35.5
36.5
35.7
36.5
36.9
38.2
38.7
39.4
40.1
3QFY21 1QFY22 3QFY22 1QFY23 3QFY23 1QFY24 3QFY24
Household debt (% of GDP)
19.5
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
3QFY21 1QFY22 3QFY22 1QFY23 3QFY23 1QFY24 3QFY24
Components of SCBs' household debt (% YoY)
Businesses Agri Secured PL* Unsecured PL
1
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4
N O T E S
1
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5
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
> - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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