As Warren Buffett has said, “when the tide goes out you see who is swimming naked,” and reacting in
the moment is challenging. The adage to “Be Prepared” is a more sound approach. From using prudent
leverage to reducing supply chain vulnerabilities, it is important to understand key enterprise-level risks
and ensure you are comfortable with your positioning. This isn’t possible to get perfect because
everything is a continuum and involves tradeoffs. Philosophically, we believe it is important to create
businesses that can survive a large shock (Federal Reserve-style stress tests are a great tool for this) and
evolve faster than the environment. And this isn’t just a business issue; our electricity, food supply,
climate, and other critical infrastructure all seem to be overly focused on short-term efficiency. While
many investors look to run a 3-year sprint, we are running a marathon and are comfortable leaving
some gas in the tank (and giving up some short-term gains) to ensure we can finish mile 26 strong.
Moats
While “moat” has become a trendy word tossed around by countless companies, finding a strong moat
or competitive advantage in the wild is rarer than it seems. The best businesses have high returns on
capital, significant reinvestment opportunities (at high rates), and a moat that keeps others from
competing away that combination. Moats and sources of competitive advantage evolve and erode over
time. Newspapers used to have an enviable moat, but we all see how the water there has dried up.
This is often tied to technology paradigm shifts and new platforms that occur over decades – electricity
changed the basis of competition in manufacturing, and railroads fundamentally altered distribution –
and it is clear digital technology and the internet are rapidly changing the current competitive
landscape. If 2020 showed us anything, it is that the rate of change is accelerating, barriers to entry are
falling (e.g., the cost of starting a business today vs. in 1999), and technology is enabling new business
models that disrupt incumbents. The list of fallen stars is long, ranging from Kodak to countless retail
stores. In fact, the consumer products / retail world provides a case study of this reality. Over time,
distribution has evolved from catalogs to department stores to Wal-Mart and specialty retail and now
Amazon and e-commerce. Historically brands were developed through national advertising – which
required significant scale – and by gaining widespread distribution through large retailers. The internet
has fundamentally changed this dynamic – online ads allow small businesses to advertise to target
customers, and virtual shelf space is infinite allowing startups to quickly get distribution via Amazon or
their own website. While the internet has unlocked countless Shopify and Amazon brands that wouldn’t
have been economically feasible in another era, some things remain the same. Unit economics still
determine long-term success and attention, acquisition, and loyalty remain key. Similar changes are
happening across other sectors and industries.
We are often asked how to navigate this increasingly complex environment. There is no simple answer,
but we think a few things can be helpful. As investors, our focus is staying in our circle of competence
and to also invest in businesses that we feel reasonably confident have a 10+ year runway (e.g., tech
with a 1-year product cycle is too hard for us). On the operating side, we think it is critical to ensure
leaders of businesses have a clear understanding of the strategic positioning, macro trends, threats, and
opportunities. Equally important is creating an organization that can respond to these changes and
evolve faster than the market (e.g., run experiments to test and learn, shorten planning cycles, and
incorporate the voice of the customer). Much like other paradigm shifts, the internet and digital are
moving beyond “technology” companies to impact every business and every industry, which requires a
shift in approach and mindset to survive.